Object
Local Plan 2040 Draft Plan - Strategy options and draft policies consultation
Representation ID: 3953
Received: 29/08/2021
Respondent: Mr Mark Potts
The model used by AECOM is fundamentally flawed because the model has not been
validated / calibrated (particularly with respect to public transport), the National Trip End Model
(NTEM) should not be used below district / county level, no uncertainty log has been prepared, it
doesn’t include household survey data, and the data has not been adequately tested. Strategic
models are not designed for use in a scheme specific assessment. The latter requires a revised
forecast model produced from a recalibrated base year model using additional and more recent
data with a more specific geographical focus of resources and modelling.
The model used by AECOM is fundamentally flawed because the model has not been
validated / calibrated (particularly with respect to public transport), the National Trip End Model
(NTEM) should not be used below district / county level, no uncertainty log has been prepared, it
doesn’t include household survey data, and the data has not been adequately tested. Strategic
models are not designed for use in a scheme specific assessment. The latter requires a revised
forecast model produced from a recalibrated base year model using additional and more recent
data with a more specific geographical focus of resources and modelling.