Object

Local Plan 2040 Draft Plan - Strategy options and draft policies consultation

Representation ID: 4161

Received: 30/08/2021

Respondent: Mrs MARGARET TURNER

Representation Summary:

The transport model used by AECOM is fundamentally flawed because the model has not been
validated/ calibrated (particularly with respect to public transport), the National Trip End Model
(NTEM) should not be used below district / county level, no uncertainty log has been prepared, it
doesn’t include household survey data, and the data has not been adequately tested. Strategic
models are not designed for use in a scheme specific assessment. The latter requires a revised
forecast model produced from a recalibrated base year model using additional and more recent data
with a more specific geographical focus of resources and modelling.

Full text:

The transport model used by AECOM is fundamentally flawed because the model has not been
validated/ calibrated (particularly with respect to public transport), the National Trip End Model
(NTEM) should not be used below district / county level, no uncertainty log has been prepared, it
doesn’t include household survey data, and the data has not been adequately tested. Strategic
models are not designed for use in a scheme specific assessment. The latter requires a revised
forecast model produced from a recalibrated base year model using additional and more recent data
with a more specific geographical focus of resources and modelling.